Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc4b…553b
sports · 19 markets active 1h ago
10.0score
+$2,948 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,488 · open −$215
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2,773
Realized+$3,488
Unrealized−$215
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1,019
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 4 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,520
7 days+$2,891
14 days+$3,488
30 days+$3,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs G2 Esports 70¢ 72¢ $1,187 $1,230 +$42 (+4%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $1,000 $881 −$119 (-12%)
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $600 $446 −$154 (-26%)
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Vitality 69¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 18¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$242 +237%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1,166 +$650 +56%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $1,388 +$1,130 +81%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,009 −$57 -6%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $256 −$250 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $353 −$350 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $353 +$154 +44%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $1,007 +$326 +32%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1,007 +$248 +25%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $1,008 +$361 +36%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1,342 +$437 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1,005 +$184 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $726 +$222 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $504 +$190 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% +$2,858
other 24% +$415
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 70¢ $1,198 38m
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 84¢ $1,199 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 84¢ $1,212 2h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 71¢ $1,212 2h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 79¢ $1,375 2h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 69¢ $1,307 2h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 78¢ $1,510 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $344 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 78¢ $739 3h
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 61¢ $202 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $102 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 24¢ $153 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 76¢ $1,078 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $811 5h
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 5h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,017 13h
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $409 23h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $2,518 25h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 54¢ $1,388 27h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $952 27h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 23¢ $153 28h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 14¢ $103 28h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 61¢ $1,012 41h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 69¢ $353 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $353 2d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 75¢ $1,007 3d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo SELL XLG Gaming 94¢ $1,255 4d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY XLG Gaming 75¢ $1,007 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)+17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +30.7% +18.3% 73% 73% +19.6%
≤30d 14 +30.3% +17.9% 79% 79% +18.6%
≤90d 14 +30.3% +17.9% 79% 79% +18.6%
all 14 +30.3% +17.9% 79% 79% +18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.9% 79% +18.6%
10% +6.6% 71% +7.3%
15% -3.7% 43% -3.1%
20% -13.1% 21% -12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,772.60 · official $3,772.60 · 42 history records