Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BC 0xbc4a…822a crypto 841 markets active 2h ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$268 (-1%) realized −$267 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%359W / 481L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$18
14 days+$13
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$295
other 0% −$101
politics 0% −$7
world 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.4% -2.9% 50% 50% -1.1%
≤30d 38 -6.4% -15.3% 39% 37% -9.7%
≤90d 467 -20.6% -28.1% 36% 33% -36.0%
all 840 -8.2% -16.9% 43% 38% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 38% -10.3%
10% -24.9% 32% -18.9%
15% -32.1% 27% -26.7%
20% -38.8% 22% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$17 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$267
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses359 / 481
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)840 / 841
History coverage412d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 840 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Up 66¢ 64¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $69 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $23 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$18 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $30 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $50 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $59 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $142 −$26 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $33 +$26 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $41 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $15 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $29 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $15 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $15 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $58 −$23 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $23 +$16 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 26 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $15 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 26 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 25 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 25 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 25 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 25 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 24 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 22 $17 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $10 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $30 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $61 −$32 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8? May 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $25 −$21 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $47 −$30 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 04 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 04 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 04 $8 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Down 34¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 56¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 52¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Down 50¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 51¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 100¢ $37 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 68¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 23¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 57¢ $14 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 43¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 47¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 48¢ $6 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 53¢ $17 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 52¢ $18 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 100¢ $60 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 50¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 96¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 51¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 40¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 38¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 68¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 43¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 41¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 42¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 51¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 51¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 52¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 6¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 51¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.05 · official $24.05 (match) · 2737 history records