Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc49…bc49 other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$20
world 25% −$2
politics 17% +$1
sports 13% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.5% -12.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 13 -0.7% -10.2% 31% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 13 -0.7% -10.2% 31% 0% -9.9%
all 46 +4.0% -5.9% 30% 2% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 2% -7.8%
10% -14.9% 2% -16.6%
15% -23.2% 2% -24.7%
20% -30.7% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.93 per $1 lost it wins $8.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage279d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $53 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $52 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $31 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $3 $0 +3%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 12 $11 +$20 +186%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $23 $0 +2%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $19 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 18 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 13 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $14 19m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $22 19m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $6 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $6 37h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $25 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $53 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $26 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $37 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $27 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records