Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc49…0ab3 sports 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate42%47W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$18
14 days−$24
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$19
other 3% $0
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -2.1% -11.5% 38% 11% -12.8%
≤30d 111 +6.2% -4.0% 42% 23% -11.7%
≤90d 111 +6.2% -4.0% 42% 23% -11.7%
all 111 +6.2% -4.0% 42% 23% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 23% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 19% -20.1%
15% -21.5% 16% -27.9%
20% -29.2% 11% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses47 / 64
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage15d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $4 $0 -10%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $1 $0 -21%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 14 $9 −$3 -32%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +84%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $7 +$1 +9%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $8 $0 -6%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $6 $0 -6%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $3 −$1 -18%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $7 −$1 -12%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $3 −$1 -22%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $4 $0 -13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $6 $0 -5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $9 −$1 -12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $4 −$1 -13%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $7 +$1 +14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $16 $0 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $11 +$1 +6%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $14 −$2 -12%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 10 $3 −$1 -30%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 10 $4 −$1 -40%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 10 $4 −$1 -26%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 10 $1 −$1 -41%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 10 $1 $0 -40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $1 $0 -26%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 10 $2 −$1 -66%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $6 −$2 -36%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $31 −$1 -4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $30 +$2 +6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $46 −$1 -2%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $39 −$2 -5%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 22¢ $2 17m
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 25¢ $2 18m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox $1 1h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 24¢ $2 1h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 24¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox $1 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 11¢ $1 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 15¢ $1 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 11¢ $1 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 58¢ $3 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $3 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 18¢ $1 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 16¢ $1 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels $0 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels $1 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 10¢ $1 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 12¢ $1 5h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics $0 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $3 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $3 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 10¢ $1 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 12¢ $1 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds $1 6h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo $1 6h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo $1 6h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo $1 6h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics $1 6h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo $1 6h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo $1 6h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 540 history records