Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BC 0xbc48…24c3 sports 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19,754 (+7%) realized +$19,901 · open −$147
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%59W / 71L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$2,091per market
Trades / day48.2pace
Fees−$1,451est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$20,897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$21,965
other 43% +$16,078
world 1% +$1,372
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -10.0% -18.6% 54% 46% +3.0%
≤30d 130 -10.4% -19.0% 45% 40% +4.8%
≤90d 130 -10.4% -19.0% 45% 40% +4.8%
all 130 -10.4% -19.0% 45% 40% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 40% +4.8%
10% -26.7% 35% -5.3%
15% ← realistic here -33.8% 31% -14.4%
20% -40.3% 25% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$1,055) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,405 vs −$611 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$20,897
Realized+$19,901
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses59 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$1,451
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage28d
Avg bet$2,091
Trades / day48.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? No 73¢ 72¢ $19,972 $19,836 −$136 (-1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? No 55¢ 55¢ $1,071 $1,061 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $22,352 +$14,272 +64%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3,528 +$1,372 +39%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $3,622 −$3,622 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $17,451 +$10,249 +59%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $526 −$512 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7,409 −$7,373 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,814 +$2,046 +113%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $22,133 +$1,867 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,869 +$3,619 +126%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $5,893 +$607 +10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $16,759 −$13,530 -81%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $307 +$243 +79%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $3,368 +$1,563 +46%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $11,304 +$3,972 +35%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $8,252 +$248 +3%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $19,350 +$3,150 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $801 −$801 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $417 −$309 -74%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $2,070 +$330 +16%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $4,406 +$2,136 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $307 −$307 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera Jun 24 $2,864 −$720 -25%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $296 −$288 -97%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $741 −$735 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 24 $887 +$463 +52%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $1,277 +$2,023 +158%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $8,892 +$5,443 +61%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $266 +$30 +11%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $19,874 +$3,726 +19%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $397 −$387 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,296 +$204 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,759 +$5,159 +137%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $864 −$851 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $2,778 −$2,747 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $2,255 −$2,238 -99%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $207 −$204 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 +$3 +41%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $570 +$505 +89%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $775 −$730 -94%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $237 −$237 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,560 +$440 +28%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $607 −$601 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $3,552 +$832 +23%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $171 +$30 +18%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $151 +$187 +123%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $3 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $770 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $44 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $12 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $18 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $34 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $12 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 73¢ $4,098 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 73¢ $15,831 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $6 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $213 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $1,119 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 63¢ $1,452 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $1,728 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $15 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $524 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $1 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $80 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $5 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $5 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $27 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $42 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $53 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $11 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $65 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $30 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $10 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,896.54 · official $20,896.54 (match) · 1443 history records