Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

BC 0xbc46…77e2 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (114 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$111 (+9%) realized +$304 · open −$193

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate65%13W / 7L

Drawdown33%max

Avg bet$54per market

Trades / day114.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (114 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+55.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+71.7%	+55.4%	65%	60%	+42.6%
≤30d	20	+71.7%	+55.4%	65%	60%	+42.6%
≤90d	20	+71.7%	+55.4%	65%	60%	+42.6%
all	20	+71.7%	+55.4%	65%	60%	+42.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover114.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+55.4%	60%	+42.6%
10% ← realistic here	+40.5%	60%	+28.9%
15%	+26.9%	50%	+16.5%
20%	+14.5%	45%	+5.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +72% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +29% → late +114% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$42 vs −$31 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized+$304

Unrealized−$193

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses13 / 7

Open positions4

Markets (closed)20 / 24

History coverage1d

Avg bet$54

Trades / day114.0

Drawdown33%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	11¢	0¢	$125	$1	−$124 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	7¢	0¢	$50	$0	−$50 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	18¢	0¢	$13	$0	−$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	27¢	0¢	$6	$0	−$6 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 17	$88	+$229	+260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Jun 17	$28	−$27	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Jun 17	$6	+$2	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 17	$4	+$44	+1040%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 17	$1	$0	-42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 16	$27	−$25	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Jun 16	$53	−$50	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Jun 16	$80	+$125	+158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 16	$28	+$27	+96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 16	$42	+$8	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 16	$52	+$40	+77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 16	$185	+$32	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Jun 16	$80	−$33	-42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 16	$99	−$75	-76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 16	$21	+$5	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Jun 16	$41	+$26	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 16	$1	+$1	+99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Up	92¢	$72	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$8	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Up	38¢	$85	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Up	41¢	$91	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Up	16¢	$69	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$27	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$26	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$26	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$26	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$1	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$1	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$7	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$31	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Up	28¢	$17	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$26	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Down	31¢	$63	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$26	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$26	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Down	43¢	$21	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$26	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	SELL Down	29¢	$19	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$26	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$27	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$27	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	SELL Up	6¢	$34	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$27	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	SELL Up	21¢	$24	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	SELL Up	33¢	$38	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$26	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$26	36m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.97 (match) · 118 history records