Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc46…899a
finance · 93 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,824 -52%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,712 · open −$111
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$170
Realized−$1,712
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses15 / 71
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)86 / 93
History coverage70d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 6 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days−$403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $101 $56 −$45 (-45%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $80 $45 −$36 (-44%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $51 $24 −$27 (-52%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Down 8¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6? Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8? Down 5¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 Week of April 27 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $169 $0 −$169 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $37 −$11 -30%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -85%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 09 $6 −$2 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $8 −$6 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $9 +$3 +33%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $29 −$29 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $23 +$68 +300%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 22 $41 −$30 -74%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 22 $47 −$32 -69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 22 $42 −$29 -68%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 22 $94 −$71 -76%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 22 $106 −$74 -70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 21 $5 −$3 -71%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in May? May 20 $47 −$39 -82%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 20 $64 −$30 -47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 20 $10 −$6 -53%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $660 in May? May 18 $27 −$25 -92%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? May 18 $91 −$77 -85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 11 $42 −$13 -30%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $2 −$2 -97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026? May 08 $25 −$9 -38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of May 4 2026? May 07 $30 −$26 -88%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $8 −$8 -95%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? May 06 $16 −$14 -85%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $6 −$5 -87%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 04 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $284 Week of April 27 2026? May 01 $42 +$58 +136%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 Week of April 27 2026? May 01 $12 +$38 +322%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 Week of April 27 2026? Apr 30 $174 −$169 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 30 $31 −$29 -92%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $58 −$27 -47%
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April? Apr 30 $6 −$4 -76%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 30 $197 −$171 -87%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 30 $324 −$287 -89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 30 $19 −$18 -95%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? Apr 30 $161 −$136 -84%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 30 $141 −$122 -87%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 30 $74 −$55 -74%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 30 $57 −$37 -64%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $82 +$123 +150%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 29 $78 −$31 -40%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 29 $1 $0 +44%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 28 $174 −$145 -84%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 28 $13 −$10 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 53% −$1,074
tech 18% −$246
crypto 17% −$365
world 9% −$209
other 4% −$82
sports 0% +$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- BUY 5¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $38 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 1¢ $0 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 4¢ $1 12h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 6¢ $2 14h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? SELL No 1¢ $1 14h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 2¢ $2 14h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 25¢ $2 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 2¢ $0 17h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $36 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 33¢ $1 27h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 33¢ $2 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 28h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $37 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $42 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -24.4% -31.6% 18% 18% +0.6%
≤30d 22 -48.0% -52.9% 9% 9% -61.7%
≤90d 86 -16.1% -24.1% 17% 17% -59.8%
all 86 -16.1% -24.1% 17% 17% -59.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 17% -59.8%
10% -31.3% 14% -63.6%
15% -38.0% 13% -67.2%
20% -44.1% 12% -70.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.62 · official $169.62 (match) · 577 history records