Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BC 0xbc43…b33d sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+6%) realized +$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%30W / 25L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$15
other 38% +$9
crypto 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +10.4% -0.1% 55% 55% -5.0%
≤30d 55 +10.4% -0.1% 55% 55% -5.0%
≤90d 55 +10.4% -0.1% 55% 55% -5.0%
all 55 +10.4% -0.1% 55% 55% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 55% -5.0%
10% -9.6% 55% -14.1%
15% -18.4% 51% -22.4%
20% -26.4% 40% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses30 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage5d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$5 +54%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$11 +206%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$28 +112%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $5 +$11 +206%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$7 +145%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $16 1h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $16 1h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $10 3h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $10 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 31h
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 41h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $10 41h
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 2d
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 17¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2d
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.18 · official $24.63 (match) · 103 history records