Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BC 0xbc43…1c89 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$106 (-12%) realized −$90 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$131
other 10% −$11
politics 2% −$14
sports 1% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +64.6% +48.9% 40% 40% -30.5%
≤30d 17 +3.5% -6.4% 41% 35% -11.8%
≤90d 36 -25.9% -32.9% 31% 28% -22.4%
all 36 -25.9% -32.9% 31% 28% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 28% -22.4%
10% -39.4% 19% -29.8%
15% -45.2% 19% -36.6%
20% -50.6% 19% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$16 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)36 / 44
History coverage86d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+27%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-51%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$6 (-79%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-93%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$26 +509%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 01 $130 −$104 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 01 $103 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 01 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 01 $52 +$119 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 01 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 01 $10 $0 -4%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 03 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 03 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 03 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 03 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 03 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 03 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 03 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 03 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 03 $10 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $25 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $155 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $117 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $137 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $34 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 13d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $10 13d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $17 13d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.41 · official $56.56 (match) · 133 history records