Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc40…34cc world 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% $0
other 23% −$1
sports 14% $0
politics 14% −$10
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +16.8% +5.7% 38% 25% -9.1%
≤30d 29 +4.5% -5.5% 34% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 70 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 3% -9.5%
all 73 +0.4% -9.2% 32% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.9%
10% -17.8% 3% -18.5%
15% -25.8% 3% -26.4%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage521d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 23¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $63 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +43%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $11 −$2 -14%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $29 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $17 +$1 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $31 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $34 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $31 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $31 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $34 −$4 -11%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $130 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $33 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $66 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 40h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $29 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $32 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $34 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $33 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $15 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $27 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $23 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $34 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 6d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $22 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $26 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $30 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.00 (match) · 298 history records