Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BC 0xbc3f…b4b8 crypto 481 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,094 (-26%) realized −$1,094 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%225W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day71.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days−$170
14 days−$170
30 days−$1,291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,280
tech 2% $0
other 1% −$7
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -76.1% -78.4% 14% 14% -95.6%
≤30d 480 -11.2% -19.7% 47% 32% -38.2%
≤90d 480 -11.2% -19.7% 47% 32% -38.2%
all 480 -11.2% -19.7% 47% 32% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 32% -38.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 28% -44.1%
15% -34.4% 23% -49.5%
20% -40.8% 19% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$1,094
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses225 / 255
Open positions1
Markets (closed)480 / 481
History coverage20d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day71.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $57 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +110%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$3 +134%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$3 +110%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 3? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2? Jun 01 $2 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 01 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 01 $2 −$1 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 01 $8 +$13 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 31 $104 −$104 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 31 $103 −$89 -86%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 31 $116 −$18 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 31 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 31 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 31 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 31 $92 −$70 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.47 · official $58.64 · 1796 history records