Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc3e…b97b other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%22W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$3
other 25% +$1
politics 10% $0
crypto 8% −$1
tech 5% $0
sports 3% +$1
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 0% -9.9%
all 48 -1.9% -11.3% 46% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses22 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage471d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $78 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $34 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $44 −$2 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $39 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $37 +$2 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $54 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Dec 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down in May? May 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 28 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 26 $32 $0 +1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 24 $16 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 23 $16 $0 +2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Fight or Flight' gross less than $0.9m opening weekend? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 -6%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $14 $0 -1%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? May 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 30 $16 $0 -1%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Mar 20 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $35 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $35 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $39 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $39 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $37 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $37 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $42 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $44 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $6 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $30 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $14 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $24 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $6 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.32 · official $34.58 (match) · 145 history records