Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:21:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc3b…08d3 politics 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$583 (-0%) realized −$584 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%24W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,376per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$734now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$94
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$61
politics 34% −$82
sports 19% −$444
world 5% −$12
culture 5% −$11
economics 1% −$4
crypto 0% +$3
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 41 -7.4% -16.2% 10% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 106 -12.2% -20.6% 8% 4% -10.3%
all 146 -0.5% -10.0% 16% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 12% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 12% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 11% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,775) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$12 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$734
Realized−$584
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses24 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,376
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $487 $487 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $246 $247 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,671 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,393 −$5 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $864 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,414 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,496 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $820 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $2,359 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $4,943 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,775 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $58 +$29 +50%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,109 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,587 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 02 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $326 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $506 +$1 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,619 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,158 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,758 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,036 −$2 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $75 +$38 +50%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,237 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 20 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $3,297 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $2,511 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,002 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $4,850 −$5 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,158 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $3,232 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,238 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1,102 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $487 32m
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $641 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $642 2h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $324 4h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $325 6h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $752 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $754 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $866 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $868 2d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $862 4d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $864 4d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $863 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $864 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $862 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $864 7d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $859 7d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $861 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $800 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $801 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $755 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $757 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $767 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $769 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $801 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $802 9d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $246 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $823 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $824 10d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $819 10d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $820 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $733.89 · official $733.89 (match) · 501 history records