Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc3a…e3bc other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$379 (+7%) realized +$274 · open +$105
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%25W / 19L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$62
14 days+$114
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$444
sports 23% −$9
politics 17% −$205
world 11% +$85
tech 6% +$13
crypto 1% −$1
finance 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +76.7% +59.9% 83% 83% +16.4%
≤30d 11 +63.9% +48.3% 91% 73% +9.6%
≤90d 44 -8.4% -17.1% 57% 43% -2.9%
all 44 -8.4% -17.1% 57% 43% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 43% -2.9%
10% -25.1% 39% -12.2%
15% -32.3% 32% -20.7%
20% -38.9% 23% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$2,374
Realized+$274
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)44 / 59
History coverage58d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $50 −$40 -80%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$26 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $100 +$37 +37%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 11 $10 +$36 +363%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 +$47 +156%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$5 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $150 +$80 +54%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $501 +$17 +3%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $4 +$1 +24%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 15 $100 +$44 +44%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $10 +$6 +62%
Trump posts himself as Jesus again in April? May 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti Apr 30 $500 +$23 +5%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? Apr 30 $4 $0 +3%
Will Trump dance today? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $5 +$7 +144%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $151 −$2 -1%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Team Solid (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 21? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $20 +$19 +97%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? Apr 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in April? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2026? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $1,217 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 20 $2 +$3 +139%
LoL: RED Canids vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Div Apr 19 $1 $0 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 19 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 19 $25 +$22 +89%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $230 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 13¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 16h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 38¢ $46 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 40¢ $182 6d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 71¢ $381 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $50 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $100 14d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $5 17d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $4 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $140 22d
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $144 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $66 39d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $501 39d
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Fnatic 37¢ $10 43d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $100 43d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 56¢ $5 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $21 46d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 61¢ $10 46d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $4 50d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 40¢ $200 51d
Will Trump dance today? BUY No $2 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 99¢ $206 51d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $46 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,373.89 · official $2,373.35 (match) · 147 history records