Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc39…6a69 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$4
other 17% +$1
politics 9% +$1
weather 5% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 4% −$3
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 21 -6.0% -14.9% 19% 5% -9.5%
all 48 -5.7% -14.6% 42% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 4% -9.4%
10% -22.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -30.3% 2% -26.0%
20% -37.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage470d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $3 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $125 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $40 −$4 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $38 −$3 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $42 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $37 +$6 +16%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $1 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Mar 31 $1 $0 -24%
Will Ronnie Brunswijk be the next president of Suriname after the elec Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 27 $4 +$2 +45%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 24 $9 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25? Apr 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 03 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 31? Mar 30 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Mar 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $16 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 62°F or higher on March 17? Mar 17 $17 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 15? Mar 17 $17 $0 +1%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $16 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $45 34m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $45 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $33 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $45 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $45 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $9 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $8 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records