trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 81¢ | 82¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? | No | 82¢ | 81¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 89¢ | 96¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+8%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$2 | +212% |
| Will San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks be the 2026 NBA Finals matc | Jun 13 | $2 | +$2 | +101% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26? | Jun 13 | $3 | +$2 | +54% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Jun 13 | $6 | +$5 | +75% |
| Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 25 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 25 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | May 25 | $3 | $0 | +8% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +110.4% | +90.4% | 100% | 100% | +68.0% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +58.8% | +43.7% | 100% | 50% | +41.1% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +58.8% | +43.7% | 100% | 50% | +41.1% |
| all | 8 | +58.8% | +43.7% | 100% | 50% | +41.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +43.7% | 50% | +41.1% |
| 10% | +29.9% | 50% | +27.6% |
| 15% | +17.4% | 50% | +15.3% |
| 20% | +5.9% | 50% | +4.0% |