Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc36…4642 sports 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,021 (-5%) realized −$2,999 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate80%238W / 59L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$342est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$752now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$51
14 days−$13
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$2,881
world 4% −$225
other 4% +$49
crypto 1% +$10
finance 1% −$50
politics 0% +$18
tech 0% +$44
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.0% -54.8% 0% 0% -45.9%
≤30d 7 -6.4% -15.3% 71% 29% -10.9%
≤90d 105 +9.8% -0.7% 77% 26% -13.6%
all 297 -2.1% -11.4% 80% 19% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 19% -13.8%
10% -19.9% 12% -22.1%
15% -27.7% 7% -29.6%
20% -34.7% 5% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$95 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$752
Realized−$2,999
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses238 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$342
Open positions13
Markets (closed)297 / 310
History coverage222d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 73¢ 57¢ $367 $288 −$79 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $172 $173 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 98¢ $78 $98 +$20 (+26%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? No 36¢ 84¢ $30 $71 +$41 (+133%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $76 $0 +0%
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $77 +$23 +30%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $97 +$3 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $66 +$12 +18%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $135 +$5 +4%
Will Costco Q3 US adjusted comparable sales growth be between 7.5% and Jun 04 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Corbin Carroll hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular seaso May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $6 −$5 -88%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 14 $16 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 14 $13 +$7 +52%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in May? May 09 $48 +$2 +5%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 08 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 08 $14 +$16 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3PM ET May 08 $23 +$57 +245%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 08 $77 +$23 +30%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting? May 08 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Papa John's (PZZA) beat quarterly earnings? May 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Cabot (CBT) beat quarterly earnings? May 03 $24 −$24 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 01 $196 −$40 -20%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 29 $88 +$3 +4%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 29 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 29 $86 +$1 +1%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Apr 29 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $194 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 28 $222 +$22 +10%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Apr 28 $159 +$11 +7%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 28 $96 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 26 $55 $0 +0%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Doosan Bears Apr 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 26 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 26 $19 +$1 +3%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 24 $6,130 −$1,234 -20%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $780 +$10 +1%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $5,650 +$80 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 13 $178 +$14 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 09 $188 −$188 -100%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 09 $1,130 −$500 -44%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $127 +$42 +33%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 09 $418 +$132 +32%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 07 $1,095 +$15 +1%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $1,664 +$11 +1%
Christian Braun: Points O/U 11.5 Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-1.5) Apr 05 $20 $0 +1%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Apr 05 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-2.5) Apr 05 $50 $0 +0%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $2,330 +$41 +2%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Apr 04 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 04 $19 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $15 58m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $23 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $59 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $35 24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $138 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 30h
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 76¢ $76 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 11d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 12d
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 12d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 37¢ $32 13d
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 13d
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 51¢ $51 13d
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 60¢ $60 13d
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 70¢ $70 13d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $16 13d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $7 13d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $13 13d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $751.95 · official $751.95 (match) · 1289 history records