Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc33…f2a9 crypto 212 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,546 (-3%) realized −$1,546 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%120W / 92L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$917
14 days−$1,407
30 days−$2,102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,855
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -3.7% -12.9% 53% 41% -16.9%
≤30d 196 -5.2% -14.2% 57% 43% -14.4%
≤90d 212 -6.1% -15.1% 57% 43% -15.5%
all 212 -6.1% -15.1% 57% 43% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 43% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 35% -23.6%
15% -30.6% 28% -31.0%
20% -37.4% 22% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$135 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,546
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses120 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 212
History coverage35d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $598 −$507 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$89 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $354 −$342 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$50 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $189 −$49 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $332 +$264 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $392 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $305 +$136 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $306 +$92 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$139 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$58 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$128 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $88 −$9 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $283 +$244 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $287 +$195 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $205 +$167 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $146 −$143 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $154 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $475 −$466 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $118 −$43 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $206 −$126 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $208 +$226 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $292 −$162 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $643 −$619 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $358 −$139 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $412 +$308 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $305 +$104 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $494 +$399 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $102 −$83 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $204 +$90 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $207 +$177 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $530 +$314 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $45 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $93 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $44 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $140 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $43 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $43 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $43 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $43 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $39 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 923 history records