Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
BC 0xbc33…eb35 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,438 (+33%) realized +$3,438 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$642per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$2,397
other 15% +$1,063
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +23.0% +11.3% 69% 69% +21.0%
≤30d 16 +23.0% +11.3% 69% 69% +21.0%
≤90d 16 +23.0% +11.3% 69% 69% +21.0%
all 16 +23.0% +11.3% 69% 69% +21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 69% +21.0%
10% +0.7% 69% +9.4%
15% -9.1% 56% -1.2%
20% -18.0% 50% -10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$518 vs −$447 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,438
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$642
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $506 +$288 +57%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $999 +$333 +33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $986 +$850 +86%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $545 +$440 +81%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $508 −$454 -89%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $557 −$548 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $427 +$124 +29%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $915 +$519 +57%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,024 +$879 +86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $355 +$670 +188%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $531 −$369 -70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $512 +$213 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $241 −$237 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $635 −$626 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $523 +$353 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $794 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $506 2h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 95¢ $1,332 17h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 71¢ $999 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,836 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $983 38h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL SaD Esports 99¢ $985 38h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY SaD Esports 54¢ $545 39h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 5¢ $54 40h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $508 40h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $557 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $550 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 77¢ $427 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $915 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,903 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1,024 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $355 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $162 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $531 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $512 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $241 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 53¢ $635 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $523 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records