Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc31…971f sports 649 markets active 1h ago coverage 657d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,253 (+2%) realized +$7,436 · open −$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%311W / 329L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$471per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2,775est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5,593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,662
7 days+$2,043
14 days+$3,127
30 days+$10,794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$1,107
other 13% +$4,205
politics 7% +$1,027
crypto 4% −$1,633
world 0% +$234
economics 0% +$257
finance 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +1.4% -8.2% 45% 45% -1.2%
≤30d 92 +3.1% -6.7% 51% 50% +3.4%
≤90d 290 -5.1% -14.1% 45% 44% -3.7%
all 640 -1.4% -10.8% 49% 45% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 45% -6.9%
10% -19.3% 43% -15.9%
15% -27.1% 38% -24.0%
20% -34.2% 35% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$299 vs −$266 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

657d coverage
Net worth$5,593
Realized+$7,436
Unrealized−$183
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses311 / 329
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$2,775
Open positions9
Markets (closed)640 / 649
History coverage657d
Avg bet$471
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 640 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $2,120 $2,100 −$20 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ 37¢ $1,270 $924 −$346 (-27%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $658 $841 +$183 (+28%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $481 $666 +$185 (+38%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 52¢ 43¢ $724 $599 −$125 (-17%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $365 $305 −$60 (-16%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ 57¢ $36 $39 +$4 (+11%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 53¢ 64¢ $21 $26 +$4 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $516 −$466 -90%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,077 +$2,139 +35%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $503 −$495 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $1,760 +$1,314 +75%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $176 −$8 -4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $258 −$257 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $608 +$435 +72%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $1,013 −$9 -1%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $608 +$445 +73%
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov Jun 15 $608 +$520 +86%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7,203 +$3,924 +54%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $5,106 −$4,560 -89%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $28 +$49 +178%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $1,458 +$917 +63%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $4,588 −$2,262 -49%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $3,063 −$3,017 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $771 −$771 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $1,522 −$1,500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$13 -13%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $3,042 +$1,417 +47%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2,025 +$396 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $367 +$633 +172%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $507 −$500 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1,423 −$323 -23%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $508 −$189 -37%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $1,455 +$446 +31%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1,055 −$170 -16%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $220 −$216 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $1,055 +$945 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $669 +$349 +52%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $2,190 +$835 +38%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $995 −$90 -9%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $367 −$240 -66%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $497 −$25 -5%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $1,192 −$49 -4%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1,024 −$126 -12%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1,778 +$1,084 +61%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $503 +$597 +119%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $1,522 −$422 -28%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $1,021 −$570 -56%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1,645 +$1,432 +87%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $103 −$57 -56%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $203 +$85 +42%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $3,041 +$1,328 +44%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $2,029 +$374 +18%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $608 +$427 +70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $409 −$347 -85%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $203 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,150 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 4¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $3,118 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $3,059 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $2,039 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $503 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $516 8h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 12¢ $190 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $36 17h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 75¢ $1,312 23h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $1,050 41h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito SELL Sara Saito 42¢ $56 43h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito SELL Sara Saito 42¢ $6 43h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito SELL Sara Saito 42¢ $15 43h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito SELL Sara Saito 42¢ $17 43h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito SELL Sara Saito 42¢ $13 43h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito SELL Sara Saito 42¢ $9 43h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito SELL Sara Saito 42¢ $16 43h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito SELL Sara Saito 42¢ $3 43h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito SELL Sara Saito 42¢ $3 43h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito SELL Sara Saito 42¢ $13 43h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito SELL Sara Saito 42¢ $17 43h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $22 44h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $22 44h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $15 44h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $79 44h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $3 44h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $22 44h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $16 44h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,592.72 · official $5,592.72 (match) · 2646 history records