Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BC 0xbc30…1b31 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,016 (+15%) realized +$3,995 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,106per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$258est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$132
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$3,969
other 8% −$5
crypto 4% +$2
world 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +3.7% -6.2% 40% 40% -56.7%
≤90d 23 +0.2% -9.4% 70% 30% +3.5%
all 23 +0.2% -9.4% 70% 30% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 30% +3.5%
10% -18.0% 26% -6.4%
15% -26.0% 26% -15.5%
20% -33.2% 17% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$513) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$545 vs −$681 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$3,995
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$258
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage96d
Avg bet$1,106
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 83¢ $71 $84 +$13 (+18%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 66¢ $61 $70 +$8 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $42 +$78 +186%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $43 +$57 +133%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $86 −$86 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $300 −$286 -95%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $37 −$37 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $8,802 +$4,184 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $8,050 +$3,439 +43%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $767 +$533 +70%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $44 +$7 +16%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 17 $376 +$424 +113%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $499 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $538 −$19 -4%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $510 +$1 +0%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 20 $338 −$338 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $513 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 11? Apr 17 $513 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $512 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 7? Apr 09 $511 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 07 $511 $0 +0%
Canucks vs. Wild Apr 04 $510 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 22? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $62 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $42 11d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $43 12d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 43¢ $18 14d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 43¢ $68 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 50¢ $6 22d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 50¢ $4 22d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 50¢ $4 22d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $300 23d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 31d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 37¢ $37 32d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $12,787 34d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $1,019 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $308 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $30 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $38 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $2 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $212 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $2 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $7 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $60 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $4,484 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 66¢ $303 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 66¢ $561 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 66¢ $11 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 66¢ $5 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 66¢ $194 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 66¢ $5 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 66¢ $28 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.12 · official $154.12 (match) · 190 history records