Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:02:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc2d…7108 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$694 (-9%) realized −$697 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,017now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$511
7 days+$371
14 days+$381
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$8
other 21% −$136
crypto 3% +$105
finance 1% −$67
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +14.6% +3.7% 46% 44% -2.6%
≤30d 54 +8.0% -2.3% 41% 39% -11.2%
≤90d 54 +8.0% -2.3% 41% 39% -11.2%
all 54 +8.0% -2.3% 41% 39% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 39% -11.2%
10% -11.6% 39% -19.7%
15% -20.2% 37% -27.4%
20% -28.0% 35% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$109 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1,017
Realized−$697
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions6
Markets (closed)54 / 63
History coverage34d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 48¢ $500 $594 +$94 (+19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $350 $267 −$83 (-24%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 76¢ 98¢ $89 $115 +$26 (+30%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 15¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $102 −$4 -4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $406 +$357 +88%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $47 −$46 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 21 $75 +$120 +160%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$128 +126%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $102 +$132 +130%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $75 −$74 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $279 +$461 +165%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $147 −$144 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $150 −$148 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $104 +$76 +73%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $510 −$500 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$320 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $75 +$125 +165%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $177 +$247 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $126 +$132 +105%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$97 +474%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $176 +$155 +88%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $41 +$175 +428%
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Jun 14 $100 −$6 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 +$127 +414%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 12 $23 −$4 -15%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $75 +$31 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$71 +140%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $710 −$700 -99%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $67 −$67 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arab BUY 43¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams BUY 44¢ $203 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 32¢ $98 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $90 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $102 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No $1 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No $5 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No $10 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 16¢ $31 12h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $38 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 88¢ $196 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $75 23h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $75 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 52¢ $101 26h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 52¢ $304 26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 44¢ $102 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 43¢ $102 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Sp BUY $41 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $75 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $204 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $45 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $150 3d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,017.43 · official $1,317.43 · 157 history records