Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BC 0xbc29…b3b6 weather 974 markets active 10h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$335 (+3%) realized +$360 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%557W / 412L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$108
14 days+$229
30 days+$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 41% +$305
crypto 22% −$77
sports 13% +$43
politics 8% +$26
other 6% −$97
world 6% +$79
finance 2% +$38
culture 1% −$3
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +35.2% +22.3% 50% 39% -0.7%
≤30d 319 +6.5% -3.7% 61% 51% -3.0%
≤90d 803 +6.0% -4.1% 59% 45% -6.0%
all 969 +2.5% -7.3% 57% 43% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 43% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 27% -15.6%
15% -24.3% 20% -23.7%
20% -31.7% 13% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$360
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses557 / 412
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)969 / 974
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 969 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 27¢ 92¢ $4 $14 +$10 (+241%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 68¢ 8¢ $16 $2 −$14 (-88%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Yes 52¢ 5¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $24 +$42 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $17 +$6 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 +$5 +1973%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$24 +708%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$18 +287%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $39 +$21 +53%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $4 +$33 +768%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $37 −$22 -59%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 $0 -44%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $16 +$4 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $28 +$17 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $29 +$34 +115%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $35 +$13 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $38 +$9 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $19 +$11 +54%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 +$21 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 +$14 +40%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $16 +$2 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $38 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 -72%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $13 +$5 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $35 −$23 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$11 +131%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $31 +$6 +18%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $23 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $11 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 14¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 14¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 18¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.88 · official $50.88 (match) · 3500 history records