Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbc29…e37d other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$482 (+27%) realized +$498 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$468
crypto 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.6% -14.6% 67% 33% -18.1%
≤30d 4 -5.4% -14.4% 50% 25% -16.7%
≤90d 4 -5.4% -14.4% 50% 25% -16.7%
all 8 +9.2% -1.2% 75% 62% +16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 62% +16.5%
10% -10.7% 25% +5.3%
15% -19.3% 12% -4.8%
20% -27.2% 0% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$9 · ×9.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×27.42 per $1 lost it wins $27.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$498
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage233d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $98 $101 +$3 (+3%)
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $48 +$3 +6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $44 −$16 -37%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Nov 19 $830 +$256 +31%
Aster all time high by December 31? Nov 19 $600 +$230 +38%
Will Rektmando win the Synthetix trading competition? Nov 09 $50 +$5 +11%
Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31? Nov 09 $50 +$7 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $78 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $28 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $22 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 11d
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $48 23d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $48 23d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $44 26d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 80d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $402 222d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $350 222d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $234 222d
Aster all time high by December 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $336 222d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $230 223d
Aster all time high by December 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $250 223d
Aster all time high by December 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $494 225d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $450 226d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $200 227d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 229d
Aster all time high by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $250 232d
Will Rektmando win the Synthetix trading competition? SELL No 100¢ $55 232d
Aster all time high by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 232d
Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $57 232d
Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $50 233d
Will Rektmando win the Synthetix trading competition? BUY No 90¢ $50 233d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.73 · official $101.73 (match) · 109 history records