Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BC 0xbc26…459c crypto 223 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$174 (-2%) realized −$174 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%69W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$344
7 days−$344
14 days−$344
30 days−$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$775
sports 0% −$10
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -53.3% -57.8% 22% 19% -42.8%
≤30d 32 -53.3% -57.8% 22% 19% -42.8%
≤90d 36 -51.4% -56.0% 22% 19% -43.2%
all 220 -19.4% -27.0% 31% 29% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 29% -19.3%
10% -34.0% 28% -27.0%
15% -40.4% 25% -34.1%
20% -46.2% 22% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$18 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$174
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses69 / 151
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)220 / 223
History coverage117d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $73 −$35 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $145 −$140 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $37 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $127 +$50 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $36 −$30 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$26 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $69 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $19 −$17 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $34 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$15 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $61 −$17 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $57 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 02 $137 −$133 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 02 $54 +$84 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 01 $39 −$37 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 19 $200 −$196 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 19 $50 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 19 $25 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 19 $81 +$51 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 19 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 19 $196 −$13 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 19 $88 +$95 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.70 · official $5.70 (match) · 783 history records