Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BC 0xbc21…c04f sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 499d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$131 (-4%) realized −$100 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$320
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$788
other 28% +$522
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -12.1% -20.5% 38% 38% -12.3%
≤30d 26 -12.1% -20.5% 38% 38% -12.3%
≤90d 26 -12.1% -20.5% 38% 38% -12.3%
all 29 -16.8% -24.7% 38% 38% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 38% -12.1%
10% -31.9% 38% -20.5%
15% -38.5% 34% -28.2%
20% -44.5% 34% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$89 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

499d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage499d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 40¢ $150 $119 −$31 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $76 +$41 +55%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$196 +65%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $37 +$33 +90%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $23 −$23 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $152 +$160 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$84 +82%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$148 +146%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$111 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$47 +91%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $77 +$364 +473%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -97%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $205 −$181 -88%
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Jul 01 $149 +$42 +28%
Du Plessis vs. Strickland Feb 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $152 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $76 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $102 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $152 16h
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) BUY Tunisia $10 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $152 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $37 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $23 42h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $152 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 44h
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 44h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 47h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 46¢ $102 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $185 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $213 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $102 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $98 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.12 · official $122.06 · 45 history records