Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BC 0xbc1c…17d9 weather 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-2%) realized −$21 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate63%63W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$9
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% −$17
sports 11% −$35
other 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -10.3% -18.9% 75% 17% -8.9%
≤30d 100 -17.3% -25.2% 63% 31% -12.3%
≤90d 100 -17.3% -25.2% 63% 31% -12.3%
all 100 -17.3% -25.2% 63% 31% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 31% -12.3%
10% -32.3% 19% -20.7%
15% -38.9% 14% -28.3%
20% -44.9% 12% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses63 / 37
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)100 / 110
History coverage11d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 26? No 96¢ 100¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? No 97¢ 97¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 26? No 94¢ 99¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? No 98¢ 96¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 26? No 96¢ 95¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 26? No 95¢ 95¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 26? No 97¢ 94¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 26? No 95¢ 94¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 26? No 92¢ 86¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? No 96¢ 72¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 26 $1 +$1 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 26 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 25? Jun 26 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 25? Jun 26 $53 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 25? Jun 26 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $55 +$4 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$4 +73%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 25 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $52 +$3 +7%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 25? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$15 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 $0 -6%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $49 22m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $49 23m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $48 23m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $50 25m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 92¢ $50 26m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $50 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $50 40m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $55 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $53 9h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $54 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $52 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $55 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $55 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $50 11h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 91¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 48¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $52 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $52 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $54 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $50 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.92 · official $491.98 (match) · 190 history records