Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BC 0xbc1c…e021 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$76 (+4%) realized +$76 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$68
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$27
other 33% +$115
crypto 5% −$4
weather 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.1% +6.0% 100% 100% +6.0%
≤30d 2 +11.7% +1.0% 100% 50% +1.3%
≤90d 25 -0.5% -10.0% 56% 36% -3.0%
all 25 -0.5% -10.0% 56% 36% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 36% -3.0%
10% -18.6% 16% -12.3%
15% -26.4% 16% -20.7%
20% -33.7% 16% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$4 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.65 per $1 lost it wins $3.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage40d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $397 +$68 +17%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $361 +$22 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $213 +$47 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14? May 13 $21 −$4 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 14? May 13 $15 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +91%
Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel May 13 $77 −$4 -5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 13 $38 −$1 -3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic May 11 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $240 +$3 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic May 11 $82 −$18 -22%
Paris: Alina Korneeva vs Katie Volynets May 11 $202 +$19 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce May 11 $1 +$1 +96%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fok May 11 $35 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 11 $32 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 11 $2 −$1 -25%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $29 +$3 +12%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 11 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 10 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 10 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 10 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 10 $2 +$4 +209%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $397 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 94¢ $361 10d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 37d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $213 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 14? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down $1 37d
Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel SELL Luka Mikrut 81¢ $35 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov SELL Casper Ruud 89¢ $0 37d
Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel BUY Luka Mikrut 85¢ $37 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov SELL Casper Ruud 89¢ $37 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov BUY Casper Ruud 91¢ $38 37d
Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel SELL Luka Mikrut 85¢ $38 37d
Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel BUY Luka Mikrut 88¢ $40 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 100¢ $45 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 92¢ $41 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Mariano Navone 14¢ $1 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $243 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Jannik Sinner 99¢ $240 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic SELL Coco Gauff 100¢ $19 39d
Paris: Alina Korneeva vs Katie Volynets SELL Katie Volynets 100¢ $221 39d
Paris: Alina Korneeva vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 91¢ $202 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic SELL Iva Jovic 23¢ $2 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 23¢ $2 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records