Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc19…c313 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,378 (+30%) realized +$1,411 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%25W / 14L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$1,452
crypto 11% +$260
sports 6% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 59% +31.6%
≤30d 39 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 59% +31.6%
≤90d 39 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 59% +31.6%
all 39 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 59% +31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 59% +31.6%
10% -17.5% 46% +19.0%
15% -25.5% 46% +7.5%
20% -32.8% 31% -3.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$12 · ×6.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.09 per $1 lost it wins $12.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$519
Realized+$1,411
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses25 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage7d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? No 85¢ 80¢ $552 $519 −$33 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $847 +$506 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $204 +$330 +162%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $304 +$190 +63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $211 +$33 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$49 +238%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $202 +$144 +71%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $502 +$60 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $288 +$140 +49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $324 +$237 +73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 84¢ $252 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $301 5h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $301 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 73¢ $202 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $102 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 35h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 39h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 45h
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 2d
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.09 · official $519.09 (match) · 91 history records