Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc17…f67a crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$142 (-4%) realized −$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate68%45W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$207
14 days−$221
30 days−$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -11.4% -19.8% 61% 30% -15.9%
≤30d 66 -6.8% -15.6% 68% 38% -15.7%
≤90d 66 -6.8% -15.6% 68% 38% -15.7%
all 66 -6.8% -15.6% 68% 38% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 38% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 24% -23.8%
15% -31.1% 12% -31.2%
20% -37.8% 9% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$27 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses45 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage8d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $53 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $97 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $135 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $109 −$56 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $107 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $57 +$24 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$98 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $151 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $138 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $302 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $41 −$21 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $107 +$27 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $105 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $121 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $110 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $66 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $116 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $117 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records