Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc17…6fe0 other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%10W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$3
politics 32% −$3
sports 17% −$10
culture 7% −$1
world 4% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 80 -5.5% -14.5% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -9.9%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 70
Open positions3
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage400d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $100 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Feb 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $51 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 14 $1 $0 -50%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $49 −$1 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 25 $98 $0 -0%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $1 $0 -23%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 11 $96 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 07 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 29 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 27 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 21 $104 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 05 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 29 $159 $0 +0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $47 31h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 3d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $47 8d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 26d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 31d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 33d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $48 42d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $47 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 113d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $47 124d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $47 126d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $48 143d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 144d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 148d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $48 149d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $48 151d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 152d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $49 156d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.65 · official $1.65 (match) · 428 history records