Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:21:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BC 0xbc17…31b0 sports 868 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (216 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$169 (-3%) realized −$176 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%495W / 341L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day215.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$97
14 days−$293
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$122
crypto 30% −$196
weather 13% +$13
world 9% +$9
other 1% +$8
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (216 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 254 +1.7% -8.0% 78% 20% -13.6%
≤30d 836 -7.4% -16.2% 59% 31% -14.7%
≤90d 836 -7.4% -16.2% 59% 31% -14.7%
all 836 -7.4% -16.2% 59% 31% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 31% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 26% -22.9%
15% -31.5% 21% -30.3%
20% -38.2% 18% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses495 / 341
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions33
Markets (closed)836 / 868
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day215.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 836 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 53¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 52¢ 97¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+87%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 69¢ 72¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 68¢ 64¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 68¢ 69¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 63¢ 60¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 41¢ 39¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 54¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 85¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.22 · official $189.75 (match) · 3500 history records