Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc13…5eb6
weather · 1144 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,706 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,547 · open −$158
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$374
Realized−$2,547
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses816 / 314
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1130 / 1144
History coverage50d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day68.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 14 History 1130 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days+$241
14 days+$1
30 days−$1,704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? No 94¢ 92¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 90¢ 88¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? No 88¢ 86¢ $47 $45 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? No 85¢ 72¢ $51 $43 −$8 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? No 94¢ 96¢ $40 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? No 80¢ 66¢ $42 $34 −$7 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? No 95¢ 98¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? No 94¢ 97¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? No 96¢ 88¢ $30 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 13? No 93¢ 88¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? No 91¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? No 88¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? No 91¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? No 86¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on April 30? No 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 7? No 82¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? No 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 7? No 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on May 8? No 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7? No 82¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 30? No 63¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 4? No 83¢ 0¢ $152 $0 −$152 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 12? No 40¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 4? No 88¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 +$9 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $56 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $109 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $55 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$15 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $56 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $49 +$12 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $108 −$107 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $58 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $58 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $58 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $58 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $117 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$9 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $59 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 −$18 -30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $58 −$12 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$10 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $296 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $109 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $59 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $13 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% −$1,888
crypto 6% −$817
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $49 37m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $47 37m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $47 58m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $112 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 97¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $61 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $29 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $61 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $27 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $74 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $29 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 86¢ $56 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $53 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $61 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $38 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $49 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +1.5% -8.1% 86% 28% -5.9%
≤30d 448 -7.8% -16.5% 73% 33% -18.6%
≤90d 1130 -5.6% -14.5% 72% 46% -15.2%
all 1130 -5.6% -14.5% 72% 46% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover68.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 46% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 13% -23.3%
15% -30.2% 5% -30.7%
20% -37.0% 3% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.11 · official $374.11 (match) · 3500 history records