Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:36:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc13…5578 other 294 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$613 (+5%) realized +$493 · open +$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate14%79W / 506L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day67.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$645
politics 1% −$81
crypto 1% −$9
sports 0% +$7
weather 0% −$4
world 0% $0
tech 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-63.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 364 -87.5% -88.7% 4% 3% -91.7%
≤30d 457 -66.5% -69.7% 9% 6% -58.3%
≤90d 585 -59.6% -63.5% 14% 8% -41.1%
all 585 -59.6% -63.5% 14% 8% -41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -63.5% 8% -41.1%
10% ← realistic here -67.0% 7% -46.8%
15% -70.2% 6% -51.9%
20% -73.1% 5% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -90% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$35 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$464
Realized+$493
Unrealized+$120
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses79 / 506
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions123
Markets (closed)585 / 294
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day67.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 123 History 585 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 8¢ 42¢ $13 $69 +$56 (+439%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 32¢ $6 $49 +$43 (+745%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $9 $23 +$14 (+160%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $4 $21 +$17 (+433%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $4 $20 +$16 (+407%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $4 $20 +$16 (+407%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $4 $19 +$15 (+381%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 8¢ 86¢ $2 $17 +$16 (+1018%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $4 $17 +$13 (+329%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $4 $16 +$12 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $4 $16 +$12 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $4 $15 +$11 (+277%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $6 $13 +$8 (+130%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 34¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+274%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 47¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+370%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 36¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+260%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+86%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+43%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 377 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 20 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$6 -813%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jun 17 $13 −$49 -375%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 17 $97 −$110 -113%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Jun 17 $1 −$10 -1294%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 17 $52 −$51 -98%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Khamenei post 200+ posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -190%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Jun 17 $25 −$33 -132%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 17 $20 −$24 -117%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 17 $24 −$28 -115%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$5 -192%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 17 $13 −$23 -179%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$11 -141%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on No Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 17 $145 −$159 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $196 −$240 -123%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 17 $16 −$31 -196%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 17 be greater than 3 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in April 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from February 20 to Fe Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 17 $21 −$33 -158%
Will Andrew Tate post 190-219 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -101%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 17 $17 −$20 -117%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 17 $8 +$82 +1017%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$7 -164%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Jun 17 $0 −$5 -1952%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Jun 17 $340 −$356 -105%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 17 $50 −$52 -103%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 17 $44 −$34 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $0 −$7 -1948%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 17 $102 −$113 -110%
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 17 $8 −$26 -319%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 17 $27 −$61 -224%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 17 $55 −$49 -89%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 17 $18 −$22 -122%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$11 -286%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 27m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 27m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 28m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 30m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 30m
England vs. Croatia: Team to Take First Corner BUY England 63¢ $3 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $1 22h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 24h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 42h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $3 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $5 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 58¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.44 · official $464.90 (match) · 3500 history records