Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc11…3636 sports 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$418 (+1%) realized +$418 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate53%90W / 80L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$232
14 days−$174
30 days−$803
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$1,029
crypto 31% +$1,820
finance 10% −$215
tech 5% +$83
other 4% −$97
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 27% -28.0%
≤30d 65 -17.4% -25.3% 55% 20% -14.3%
≤90d 122 -13.0% -21.3% 51% 25% -15.5%
all 170 -8.9% -17.6% 53% 29% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 29% -7.7%
10% -25.5% 18% -16.5%
15% -32.7% 15% -24.6%
20% -39.3% 15% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$31 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$418
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses90 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage211d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +108%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$3 -68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 −$19 -32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$14 -41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $172 −$40 -24%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $900 −$154 -17%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $51 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $334 +$42 +12%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $429 +$16 +4%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $207 +$7 +3%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $305 −$6 -2%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 04 $904 −$96 -11%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $81 +$6 +8%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $2 −$1 -87%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 04 $409 +$21 +5%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $208 +$13 +6%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 04 $434 +$75 +17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $415 +$85 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $103 −$102 -99%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $151 +$24 +16%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 01 $419 +$13 +3%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $1 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 G Jun 01 $32 +$8 +25%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $260 +$54 +21%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO5) - Odyssey Cup Brazil May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $41 +$19 +48%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $507 +$42 +8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $605 +$10 +2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $52 −$38 -73%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 30 $488 −$13 -3%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 30 $320 −$27 -8%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $411 +$38 +9%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs TNC - Map 2 Winner May 29 $40 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ALGO Esports - Map 2 Winner May 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - Thunder May 29 $524 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Euro May 29 $1,133 −$130 -12%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs UCAM Esports Club - Map 2 Winner May 28 $30 −$5 -16%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs UCAM Esports Club - Map 1 Winner May 28 $90 +$9 +10%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs REBORN - Map 3 Winner May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs REBORN (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 27 $570 +$42 +7%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 26 $319 +$11 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $42 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 29h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 70¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 70¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 70¢ $76 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 18¢ $40 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 94¢ $53 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 94¢ $78 5d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 69¢ $69 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 69¢ $93 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 69¢ $10 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 87¢ $130 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 90¢ $90 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL NRG 19¢ $26 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 70¢ $175 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 70¢ $12 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 70¢ $60 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 70¢ $78 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 912 history records