Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc0f…fb6f sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,169 (+28%) realized +$1,200 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$1,211
other 26% −$169
crypto 2% +$61
world 1% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.7% -10.1% 54% 50% +23.2%
≤30d 26 -0.7% -10.1% 54% 50% +23.2%
≤90d 26 -0.7% -10.1% 54% 50% +23.2%
all 26 -0.7% -10.1% 54% 50% +23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 50% +23.2%
10% -18.7% 46% +11.4%
15% -26.6% 42% +0.6%
20% -33.8% 42% -9.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$71 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$362
Realized+$1,200
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage5d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 42¢ $393 $362 −$31 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$197 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 −$27 -59%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $58 +$37 +63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $205 +$274 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $204 +$206 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $54 −$44 -82%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $57 −$39 -69%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $304 +$158 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$61 +60%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 −$2 -8%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $112 −$108 -96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $157 +$20 +12%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $108 −$55 -51%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $221 −$146 -66%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $551 +$558 +101%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$78 +76%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$56 -55%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$144 +71%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$95 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $103 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $204 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $203 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $203 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $95 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $56 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 10¢ $7 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 10¢ $3 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 18¢ $18 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $53 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $57 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $205 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $204 44h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $163 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $104 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.63 · official $370.35 · 92 history records