Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:05:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc0c…9bbb crypto 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,182 (-9%) realized −$3,182 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%75W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$75
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,096
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -9.1% -17.7% 50% 50% +23.2%
≤30d 6 -9.1% -17.7% 50% 50% +23.2%
≤90d 115 -10.4% -19.0% 37% 37% -22.3%
all 194 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 39% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 39% -17.1%
10% -23.5% 39% -25.0%
15% -30.9% 39% -32.2%
20% -37.6% 39% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$195 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses75 / 119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage115d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions (118 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $52 +$45 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $52 +$42 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $52 +$40 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET May 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET May 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET May 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 6AM ET May 28 $21 +$31 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6AM ET May 28 $200 +$288 +144%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET May 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET May 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET May 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 7PM ET May 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10AM ET May 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 10AM ET May 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10AM ET May 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5AM ET May 23 $200 +$288 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10PM ET May 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 12PM ET May 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET May 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET May 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET May 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4AM ET May 18 $200 +$288 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4AM ET May 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10AM ET May 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET May 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12PM ET May 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 3PM ET May 14 $50 +$72 +144%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12PM ET May 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET May 14 $200 +$288 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2PM ET May 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1PM ET May 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2PM ET May 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET May 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12PM ET May 10 $200 +$288 +144%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET May 09 $200 +$288 +144%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 2AM ET May 09 $200 +$288 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET May 08 $200 +$288 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 4AM ET May 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4AM ET May 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2PM ET May 07 $200 +$288 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8AM ET May 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3AM ET May 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 12PM ET May 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3AM ET May 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9AM ET May 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET May 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $97 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1437 history records