Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BC 0xbc08…6b85 sports 2216 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$678 (-1%) realized −$660 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%1204W / 990L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$1,085est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,696now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$4,225
other 22% +$1,481
world 0% +$137
crypto 0% +$88
finance 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 -24.4% -31.6% 42% 41% -7.8%
≤30d 795 +3.2% -6.7% 56% 56% +3.5%
≤90d 2194 -1.6% -11.0% 55% 55% -6.3%
all 2194 -1.6% -11.0% 55% 55% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 55% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 52% -15.3%
15% -27.3% 44% -23.5%
20% -34.4% 34% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$42 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1,696
Realized−$660
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses1204 / 990
Est. fees paid−$1,085
Open positions24
Markets (closed)2194 / 2216
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 2194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 74¢ 76¢ $151 $156 +$5 (+3%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $151 $148 −$3 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 60¢ 74¢ $101 $124 +$23 (+22%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 56¢ 56¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Janice Tjen 35¢ 34¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-1%)
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Stefano Napolitano 50¢ 48¢ $59 $57 −$2 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 49¢ 50¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 69¢ 66¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 50¢ 46¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-9%)
Dart vs. Boulter: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 64¢ 66¢ $30 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 62¢ 62¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Max Alcala Gurri vs. Andres Santamarta: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 63¢ 64¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Dane Sweeny vs. Jacob Fearnley: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 61¢ 62¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Dias vs. Choinski: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 69¢ 71¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 63¢ 66¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Schoenhaus vs. Tien: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 79¢ 66¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-16%)
Carlos Sanchez Jover vs. Alejandro Moro Canas: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 57¢ 58¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Christopher OConnell 50¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Gonzalo Bueno vs. Tomasz Berkieta: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 66¢ 68¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 75¢ 78¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Ognjen Milic 35¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 2¢ $39 $2 −$37 (-95%)
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 0.75%? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 470 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brasilia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Facundo Acosta Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Valparaiso Beacons vs. Bradley Braves Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
KHL: Shanghai Dragons vs. Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bulls vs. Lakers Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
NL: Davos vs. Zug Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Memphis Tigers vs. Tulane Green Wave Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Split: Ergi Kirkin vs Sandro Kopp Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Bengaluru FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucaramanga: Valerio Aboian vs Garrett Johns Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Asuncion: Franco Roncadelli vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Monte (BO3) - BC Game Masters Champion Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Murcia: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Naples: Andrea Pellegrino vs Filip Jianu Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
BC Dubai vs. Panathinaikos Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-03-07? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-03-16? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pyramids FC win on 2026-03-09? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
La Union vs. Ferro Carril Oeste Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-1.5) Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Ak Bars Kazan Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-03-21? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Grou Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cu Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
KHL: Spartak Moscow vs. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Cap Cana: Tomas Barrios vs Raphael Collignon Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will USL Dunkerque vs. Stade de Reims end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-03-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Antalya 3: Katarzyna Kawa vs Carole Monnet Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
AHL: Lehigh Valley Phantoms vs. Charlotte Checkers Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Santiago: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Daniel Dutra da Silva Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Magda Linette vs. Varvara Gracheva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: BRUTE vs DMG Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Providence Friars vs. Georgetown Hoyas Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 166.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Murcia: Jesper de Jong vs Max Houkes Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5 Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Yokkaichi: Renta Tokuda vs August Holmgren Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Janice Tjen 35¢ $78 33m
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 50¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Team Nemesis 62¢ $22 6h
Dart vs. Boulter: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 64¢ $30 6h
Dias vs. Choinski: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 69¢ $12 6h
Schoenhaus vs. Tien: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 79¢ $13 6h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 63¢ $11 7h
Max Alcala Gurri vs. Andres Santamarta: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 63¢ $16 7h
Dane Sweeny vs. Jacob Fearnley: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 61¢ $15 7h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 50¢ $60 8h
Gonzalo Bueno vs. Tomasz Berkieta: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 66¢ $7 8h
Carlos Sanchez Jover vs. Alejandro Moro Canas: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 57¢ $8 8h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Ognjen Milic 35¢ $3 8h
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma BUY Madison Brengle 64¢ $25 10h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 59¢ $2 12h
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Joventut 49¢ $12 15h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 56¢ $102 16h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $75 16h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 69¢ $47 17h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 52¢ $3 19h
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 37¢ $77 19h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $77 20h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 45¢ $77 20h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 73¢ $152 20h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro BUY Noir Esports 59¢ $18 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $103 21h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $19 24h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 35¢ $30 29h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 69¢ $100 29h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 73¢ $86 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,695.64 · official $1,695.68 (match) · 3500 history records