Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc07…24e7 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$44 (-28%) realized −$44 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$45
other 7% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -37.8% -43.7% 31% 31% -49.7%
≤30d 13 -37.8% -43.7% 31% 31% -49.7%
≤90d 13 -37.8% -43.7% 31% 31% -49.7%
all 13 -37.8% -43.7% 31% 31% -49.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.7% 31% -49.7%
10% ← realistic here -49.1% 31% -54.5%
15% -54.0% 23% -58.9%
20% -58.5% 23% -62.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 53¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Up 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$25 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$12 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$9 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 11¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.76 · official $16.84 (match) · 73 history records