Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BC 0xbc07…897a crypto 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$657 (-1%) realized −$657 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate81%119W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$53
economics 33% −$55
sports 15% −$14
crypto 5% −$113
politics 2% −$422
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 147 -6.7% -15.6% 81% 9% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 9% -10.7%
10% -23.6% 5% -19.3%
15% -31.0% 4% -27.1%
20% -37.8% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$26 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$657
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses119 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)147 / 149
History coverage587d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 April 6-12? May 11 $85 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? Feb 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 January 5-11? Feb 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in January? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 8-14? Jan 09 $23 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $70 before 2026? Jan 09 $23 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on December 8? Dec 09 $23 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in November? Dec 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 08 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 24? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? Nov 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on November 4? Nov 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 4? Nov 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? Nov 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 04 $26 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 04 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 13 $25 −$1 -2%
Will XRP dip to $2.50 October 6-12? Oct 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 6-12? Oct 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 6-12? Oct 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $160 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 02 $23 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 02 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on August 12 at 5PM ET? Sep 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin above $113K on August 24 at 4PM ET? Sep 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana dip to 170 September 1–7? Sep 19 $12 $0 +2%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Sep 19 $13 +$5 +41%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 September 1–7? Sep 19 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 44d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $85 78d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 78d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $100 102d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $56 120d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $56 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $80 141d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $16 165d
Will Solana dip to $60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 165d
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $40 165d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 165d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $23 196d
Will Solana dip to $70 before 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 198d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on December 8? BUY No 98¢ $23 198d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $44 198d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $45 198d
Will Solana reach $210 in November? BUY No 100¢ $34 210d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 24? BUY No 100¢ $14 212d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 212d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $20 212d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on November 4? BUY No 100¢ $14 232d
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 4? BUY No 100¢ $20 232d
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? BUY No 100¢ $20 232d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $40 232d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $40 232d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.00 · official $138.00 (match) · 319 history records