Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc06…122c other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$1
other 27% −$5
politics 20% −$2
sports 10% +$21
culture 7% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 71% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 12 -0.7% -10.1% 42% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 14 +141.4% +118.4% 43% 7% -9.2%
all 48 +41.3% +27.9% 33% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.9% 4% -9.5%
10% +15.6% 4% -18.2%
15% +4.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -5.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +83% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage266d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 70¢ 80¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $78 −$2 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $71 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 +$2 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -5%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Jun 08 $56 −$5 -9%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $31 +$20 +66%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $3 $0 -12%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 29 $24 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 22 $17 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 20 $21 $0 -2%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 04 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 04 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $3 $0 -10%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will I'm The Problem by Morgan Wallen be the top Spotify album for 202 Oct 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $20 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $37 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $37 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $22 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $11 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 79¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $37 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $19 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $17 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $39 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $38 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $26 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $8 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $23 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.33 · official $0.00 · 241 history records