Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

BC 0xbc03…c6cf other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$21 (+3%) realized +$22 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate48%12W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day9.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit19%portable

Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-18.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	-9.7%	-18.3%	48%	36%	-7.8%
≤30d	25	-9.7%	-18.3%	48%	36%	-7.8%
≤90d	25	-9.7%	-18.3%	48%	36%	-7.8%
all	25	-9.7%	-18.3%	48%	36%	-7.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.3%	36%	-7.8%
10%	-26.2%	28%	-16.6%
15%	-33.3%	20%	-24.7%
20%	-39.8%	8%	-32.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -19% → late -1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.13 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$9

Realized+$22

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses12 / 13

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)25 / 26

History coverage6d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day9.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	42¢	40¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$28	+$1	+2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$10	+$1	+10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	$0	-3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	$0	-1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$2	$0	+3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$11	−$5	-49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$5	+$1	+23%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 20	$2	$0	-4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	+$3	+29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$20	+$10	+51%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$1	$0	-42%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$5	+$2	+38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$2	−$1	-57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$1	-7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$1	$0	-46%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	+$4	+38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$31	−$11	-38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$4	+19%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$3	+$2	+70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$171	−$57	-33%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$141	+$30	+21%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$99	+$45	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$10	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	94¢	$28	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$28	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	76¢	$11	6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	70¢	$10	25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$10	25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	70¢	$10	28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2	31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	97¢	$2	31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	34¢	$1	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	33¢	$1	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	32¢	$5	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	74¢	$6	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	59¢	$5	2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	SELL Yes	10¢	$1	2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	SELL Yes	10¢	$0	2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	SELL Yes	10¢	$1	2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	79¢	$13	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$10	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	95¢	$31	3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	14¢	$1	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	5¢	$0	3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$1	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$20	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.40 · official $9.40 (match) · 58 history records