Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc02…dc78 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$115 (+1%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%37W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$113
economics 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
other 1% $0
politics 1% +$1
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 37 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -8.2%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.0%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 95% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses37 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage461d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 100¢ 99¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 11-17? May 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 17 $5,904 +$54 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? May 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 15? May 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? May 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? May 04 $11 $0 +0%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? May 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? May 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? Mar 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Mar 20 $18 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 20 $24 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? Feb 24 $15 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 24 $16 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jan 14 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 14 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 29 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 27 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 23 $986 +$55 +6%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 12 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 07 $21 $0 +1%
Will Solana hit $250 in March? Mar 23 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 33d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $17 33d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $19 33d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 SELL No 100¢ $18 33d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 11-17? SELL No 100¢ $55 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $425 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $28 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $1,679 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $50 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $1,057 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $3 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $2,711 37d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $33 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 37d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 37d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $55 38d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $36 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $2,693 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $293 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $615 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $2,304 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 49d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $18 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.98 · official $65.98 (match) · 92 history records