Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BB 0xbbff…ca93 other 197 markets active 0h ago coverage 781d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate35%42W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$8
14 days+$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$11
other 14% −$39
politics 9% +$11
tech 6% $0
world 1% +$4
finance 0% +$10
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +7.7% -2.6% 32% 28% +1.0%
≤30d 78 +12.2% +1.6% 36% 24% -11.0%
≤90d 78 +12.2% +1.6% 36% 24% -11.0%
all 121 +7.9% -2.4% 35% 21% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 21% -9.9%
10% -11.7% 18% -18.5%
15% -20.3% 17% -26.4%
20% -28.1% 15% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

781d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses42 / 79
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions76
Markets (closed)121 / 197
History coverage781d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 20¢ 52¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+156%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 43¢ 61¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+43%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 75¢ 98¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 59¢ 65¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No 67¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 81¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 79¢ 79¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 71¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 79¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? Yes 56¢ 86¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+54%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? No 89¢ 88¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 70¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sui reach $1.80 before 2027? No 64¢ 67¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 88¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $3 +$10 +331%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $1 $0 -20%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +106%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -68%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +53%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +79%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $8 −$3 -34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +51%
Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$4 +352%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +41%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $4 $0 -8%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 06 $4 −$2 -60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 +3%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 06 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0014 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 05 $5 −$2 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 -5%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 +3%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $54 −$3 -6%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 04 $6 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $4 $0 +4%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 04 $3 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +15%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $7 +$4 +54%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $6 −$1 -19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $7 −$2 -33%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $6 +$3 +43%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $6 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 27m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $2 57m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 33¢ $1 57m
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $3 1h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $4 1h
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 34¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $3 1h
Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 1h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $1 1h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? SELL No 75¢ $4 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 96¢ $7 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.76 · official $189.31 (match) · 515 history records