Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbfa…a2a3 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$150 (-10%) realized −$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$805
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -16.7% -24.6% 40% 40% -60.4%
≤30d 10 -16.7% -24.6% 40% 40% -60.4%
≤90d 10 -16.7% -24.6% 40% 40% -60.4%
all 10 -16.7% -24.6% 40% 40% -60.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 40% -60.4%
10% -31.8% 40% -64.2%
15% -38.4% 40% -67.7%
20% -44.5% 30% -70.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$184 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $142 −$130 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $46 +$97 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $325 −$300 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $108 +$44 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $81 +$41 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $419 −$390 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$95 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $152 −$140 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $54 −$50 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $91 +$119 +131%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $142 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $142 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $46 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $102 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $44 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $108 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $54 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $210 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $91 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records