Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbbf4…3b45 other 665 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,835 (+12%) realized +$3,875 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%311W / 343L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days+$285
14 days+$550
30 days+$1,127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$3,048
politics 7% +$604
weather 6% $0
sports 4% −$116
crypto 2% −$119
tech 1% +$43
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 47% +5.7%
≤30d 154 +34.4% +21.6% 45% 37% -6.0%
≤90d 513 +10.2% -0.3% 48% 38% -0.7%
all 654 +5.7% -4.3% 48% 37% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 37% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 29% -11.4%
15% -21.8% 22% -20.0%
20% -29.5% 18% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized+$3,875
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses311 / 343
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions11
Markets (closed)654 / 665
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 654 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $75 $97 +$22 (+29%)
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $88 $43 −$45 (-51%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $37 $33 −$4 (-11%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+16%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $25 $19 −$5 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-55%)
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+200%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $54 +$30 +56%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$16 +48%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $16 −$12 -75%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$35 +226%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 19 $26 +$75 +288%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 19 $17 −$9 -56%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$2 -40%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $53 −$23 -44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 +$15 +50%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $16 +$27 +171%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$6 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $22 +$4 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$5 +16%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$4 -51%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$7 -41%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 +$4 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$9 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $47 +$31 +66%
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -57%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $72 +$37 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $26 +$10 +40%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $62 +$18 +30%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $63 +$91 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +242%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $136 +$12 +9%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $33 +$14 +43%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $485 +$30 +6%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $192 +$18 +9%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -75%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 +$14 +164%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $17 −$2 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $25 1h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 9h
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 9h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 9h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 9h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 9h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $59 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $15 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 23h
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $3 26h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $7 32h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 34h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 35h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 35h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $80 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 43h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 44h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $43 47h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $7 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 47h
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $1 2d
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June SELL Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $0 2d
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $25 2d
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June SELL Yes 92¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.08 · official $261.68 (match) · 3500 history records