Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbf3…aa3a sports 948 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,706 (-3%) realized −$24,973 · open −$733
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%479W / 466L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$801per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$9,156est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$724
7 days−$10,220
14 days−$11,350
30 days−$20,387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$32,260
other 2% +$1,528
crypto 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -21.0% -28.5% 39% 39% -31.6%
≤30d 313 -8.3% -17.1% 51% 51% -13.8%
≤90d 751 -6.7% -15.6% 51% 51% -12.4%
all 945 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 50% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 50% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 50% -21.4%
15% -31.6% 47% -29.0%
20% -38.3% 38% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$600 vs −$682 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized−$24,973
Unrealized−$733
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses479 / 466
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$9,156
Open positions3
Markets (closed)945 / 948
History coverage117d
Avg bet$801
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 945 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 38¢ $500 $306 −$194 (-39%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 24¢ $500 $211 −$289 (-58%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 39¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 372 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $506 +$370 +73%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $504 +$190 +38%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $489 +$474 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $542 +$756 +139%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $436 −$431 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $509 +$750 +147%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $303 +$116 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $320 −$116 -36%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $198 +$166 +84%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $496 −$491 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $362 +$344 +95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $494 −$486 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $881 −$868 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $986 −$968 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $400 −$395 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $933 −$923 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $1,000 +$895 +90%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $1,216 −$1,203 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $734 +$907 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,484 −$1,457 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,100 −$1,084 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,011 +$575 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $712 −$700 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,029 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $797 +$2,791 +350%
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 11 $203 +$254 +125%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $479 −$471 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $511 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,953 −$2,921 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,505 +$1,132 +45%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5,613 −$5,552 -99%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,953 +$751 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,988 +$2,373 +79%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $177 −$173 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $1,018 +$1,419 +139%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $996 +$756 +76%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $735 −$725 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 08 $84 −$83 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $152 −$150 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $487 −$480 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $506 39m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $506 40m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $255 40m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $876 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $694 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $506 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $504 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $506 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $506 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $1,298 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 41¢ $542 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $489 6h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $506 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $436 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,259 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $509 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $418 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 72¢ $303 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 28¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $110 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 30¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $152 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $363 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $198 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 52¢ $197 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 62¢ $496 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $211 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $707 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 46¢ $494 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 50¢ $362 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.08 · official $517.08 (match) · 1961 history records