Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbf2…2b86 tech 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$113 (+90%) realized +$119 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 74% −$7
world 17% −$1
other 5% $0
sports 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -57.0% -61.1% 0% 0% -37.3%
≤30d 2 -57.0% -61.1% 0% 0% -37.3%
≤90d 2 -57.0% -61.1% 0% 0% -37.3%
all 2 -57.0% -61.1% 0% 0% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.1% 0% -37.3%
10% -64.8% 0% -43.3%
15% -68.2% 0% -48.8%
20% -71.3% 0% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 56¢ 51¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra Jun 16 $21 −$3 -14%
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.19 · official $71.19 (match) · 10 history records