Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BB 0xbbf1…7221 other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,828 (-1%) realized −$1,828 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%25W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,112per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$21
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$2,068
politics 32% −$51
sports 13% +$284
economics 2% −$2
culture 1% −$2
tech 1% −$2
world 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 93 -10.0% -18.6% 11% 4% -11.4%
all 131 +1.3% -8.4% 19% 13% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 13% -10.7%
10% -17.1% 13% -19.2%
15% -25.2% 9% -27.0%
20% -32.5% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,393) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$27 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,828
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses25 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,112
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $2,587 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $3,341 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,458 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,050 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 07 $1,275 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,827 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,847 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,016 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 04 $258 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $335 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $663 +$1 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $408 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $408 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,426 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,185 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,392 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $1,393 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $2,521 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $4,005 −$5 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $3,045 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 01 $874 +$2 +0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $359 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $2,111 −$2 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,223 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,359 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2,396 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $2,444 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,387 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $1,265 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,336 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $2,384 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,362 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $5,784 −$7 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $5,120 −$5 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $2,847 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,132 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $917 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $572 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $572 3h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $352 20h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $352 22h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $839 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $840 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,104 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,106 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,144 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,146 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,175 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,176 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,243 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,245 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,138 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,140 7d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,274 12d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,275 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,062 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,064 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,017 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,019 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,243 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,245 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,014 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,016 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $335 18d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $335 19d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $443 21d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $444 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 424 history records