Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BB 0xbbf1…d61a sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$198 (-3%) realized −$180 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%27W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,268
7 days+$1,562
14 days+$1,298
30 days+$1,309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$1,199
other 18% +$92
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +32.8% +20.1% 48% 48% +17.4%
≤30d 40 +25.9% +13.9% 52% 52% +11.6%
≤90d 50 +17.3% +6.1% 54% 52% +11.3%
all 50 +17.3% +6.1% 54% 52% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 52% +11.3%
10% -4.0% 46% +0.7%
15% -13.3% 36% -9.1%
20% -21.8% 28% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$127 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$382
Realized−$180
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage51d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 54¢ 52¢ $350 $334 −$16 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 +$403 +785%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argenti Jun 17 $337 +$1,594 +473%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $456 −$450 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 +$6 +12%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $201 −$70 -35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $260 +$233 +90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $192 −$188 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $355 −$350 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $303 −$300 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $202 +$106 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $304 +$284 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $204 +$510 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $108 +$119 +110%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $507 −$200 -40%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $357 +$155 +44%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $304 +$218 +72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $306 +$547 +179%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 +$3 +26%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$5 +25%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) Jun 06 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 06 $153 −$153 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$14 +296%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $4 +$5 +129%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $10 +$1 +11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2 +$1 +26%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $8 +$4 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $5 +$2 +48%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $10 +$3 +27%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $15 +$4 +29%
76ers vs. Celtics May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 54¢ $355 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 14h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 19h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: BUY 30¢ $397 19h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England ( BUY 31¢ $543 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 53¢ $456 21h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 13¢ $58 21h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 51¢ $131 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $201 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $153 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $260 47h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argenti BUY 17¢ $337 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $192 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $355 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $303 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $204 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 65¢ $202 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $304 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $152 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 46¢ $102 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 46¢ $9 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $1 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $204 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Haiti 60¢ $278 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.33 · official $382.33 (match) · 120 history records